For most Bolivian SMEs, December is the month when the most money goes out and the least comes in. The aguinaldo is due, holiday stock has to be bought and paid for, suppliers want to close their own books, and customers slow their payments until the new year. None of it is a surprise, which means all of it can be planned. October is when to do it.
1. The four December squeezes
Aguinaldo
A full month's salary per employee, payable by December 20. For many businesses, it's the largest single payment of the year. Our
aguinaldo guide covers the calculation.
Holiday inventory
Retailers, distributors and restaurants buy in November to sell in December. The cash leaves weeks before it comes back.
Year-end supplier pressure
Suppliers chase payment in December to close their own year. Terms that are flexible in March often aren't in December.
The January gap
Customers' accounts teams go on holiday, December invoices get paid in late January, and the IVA and IT on your strong December sales are due in January anyway.
2. Build a 13-week forecast this week
A weekly forecast from now to early January takes an afternoon. List, week by week:
- Cash in: receivables by realistic payment date (not invoice due date), plus expected cash sales.
- Cash out: payroll, aguinaldo, rent, supplier payments, inventory purchases, taxes by your NIT due date, loan payments.
- Ending balance each week, and the lowest point.
Cash today (early October)Bs 180,000
Collections, Oct–early Jan (realistic dates)+ Bs 960,000
Regular costs, 13 weeks− Bs 640,000
Holiday stock (paid in November)− Bs 260,000
Aguinaldo (December 20)− Bs 110,000
December taxes (paid in January)− Bs 70,000
Ending cash, early JanuaryBs 60,000
The ending number looks fine. But on a weekly view, this business dips below zero in the third week of December: the aguinaldo goes out on the 20th, while most December collections arrive in January. The total isn't the problem. The timing is. That's why the forecast has to be weekly.
3. Seven moves to make in October and November
1
Collect overdue invoices nowEvery invoice over 30 days old is December cash. Start the follow-ups this week, not in December when everyone is busy.
2
Ring-fence the aguinaldoMove one-twelfth of monthly payroll into a separate account each month. If you haven't been doing it, move the gap in October and November.
3
Invoice December earlyBill recurring services and deliveries in the first days of December, so they fall into customers' pre-holiday payment runs.
4
Buy stock against dataSize holiday purchases from last year's sell-through, not from optimism. Unsold stock in January is cash you can't use.
5
Negotiate supplier terms in OctoberAsk for 45 or 60 days on holiday purchases now, while suppliers are still competing for your order.
6
Arrange a credit line before you need itBanks approve credit lines for businesses that don't need them yet. Apply in October; you may never draw on it.
7
Set aside January's taxesThe IVA and IT on December sales are due in January. Treat that money as already spent.
Watch for a second aguinaldo announcement. The "Esfuerzo por Bolivia" second aguinaldo applies only if the government decrees it, which depends on economic growth. It hasn't been triggered in recent years, but if it's announced it would double your December payroll outflow. Keep a scenario for it in your forecast.
How Contably helps: Contably builds your 13-week cash forecast from real data: open invoices with each customer's actual payment behaviour, scheduled payroll and aguinaldo, and tax due dates based on your NIT. You see your lowest week before it arrives, and automated reminders help bring overdue invoices in before December.
This article is general information for Bolivian businesses, not tax, legal or financial advice. Figures in the example are illustrative. Confirm how the rules apply to your business with your accountant before acting.
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